Big data: Where swing states stand based on 8.6 million digital discussions analyzed over a week
Overall Positive Sentiment: 50% Biden/ 46% Trump
Hispanic Positive Sentiment: 51% Biden/ 42% Trump
With less than a week from the final day of the elections, we have taken the pulse of public sentiment based on the harvesting and analysis of over 8.6 million digital discussions from 10/21- 10/28. Using artificial intelligence, natural language processing, and big data tools in the CulturIntel algorithm, we measured the share of voice (a good proxy for enthusiasm) and sentiment ( an indicator of preference) to measure candidate favorability for the overall population and Hispanics.
Here are the highlights:
▪Overall, positive sentiment is close at 50% for Biden and 46% for Trump▪Among Hispanics Trump is reporting 42% positive, which is significantly higher when compared to the 28% of Hispanic votes he secured in 2016. Could this indicate he can break into the 40%’s as did President George W. Bush?
▪Nevada is winning big for Trump, reporting him ahead with both the overall sentiment at 47% and among Hispanics at 45%. This is significant since Hillary won Nevada in 2016.
▪Michigan and Pennsylvania show much more favorable for Biden who is leading with a bigger spread versus other states at 54% positive while Trump is at 46%
▪Texas, which always leans Republican, shows a very close 48% for Trump and 50% for Biden. Could it turn blue as some suggest?
▪The negative sentiment for both candidates is identical at 47%
▪The highest percentages in terms of share of positive sentiment towards Biden were in the states of Michigan, Ohio, and Florida, almost 1.2X more as compared to Trump. In contrast, states such as Texas and Colorado report higher negative sentiment for Biden
Overall positive sentiment profile by candidate and state, analyzed by CulturIntel.
Hispanics could make a winning difference in Florida, Arizona, Colorado and even tip over Texas
▪Hispanics can be the tipping point representing 17% of the registered voters in Florida, 2.5 million. The Latino share of Florida’s electorate rose by 9 percentage points between 2000 and 2018, from 11% of eligible voters to 20%. Nationally, a record 32 million Latinos are eligible to vote in 2020.
▪Neither candidate can take this vote for granted, this is why all eyes are on Florida. While the majority are registered Democrats, a big proportion is independent. This year, about 948,000 Hispanic voters are registered as Democrats (amounting to about 38% of the Hispanic total in Florida), while roughly 640,000 are registered as Republicans (26% of the total). An additional 880,000 Hispanic Floridians are registered with no party affiliation (35% of the total), according to Pew Hispanic Research.
No one can celebrate just yet, it’s a toss-up!
It’s been interesting times with sentiment trends shifting almost week to week. With this atypical pattern, it is basically a “toss-up” as people’s enthusiasm seems to be changing through time. Ultimately, turnout will make a BIG difference, and while these measures are not a scientific representation of voter intent they serve as a valuable proxy for volume of support (share of voice) and preference (sentiment). No one can fully celebrate yet or get comfortable, only time, and turnout will tell. When looking at these numbers, we must keep in mind that there are many “shy” Trump supporters who are not vocal about their support for the President which can always serve as a surprise on election day.
CulturIntel is an award-winning market research tech using artificial intelligence, natural language processing, and leading big data tools to turn open-source digital discussions into actionable insights. Its proprietary algorithm harvests all available open-source and unsolicited digital discussions as they happen in real-time everywhere, to cluster and discover patterns in public opinion, sentiment, and behavioral insights forged by the digital voice of the people, as opposed to a survey or poll. CulturIntel has published in collaboration with researchers at Harvard University, The Cleveland Clinic, The World Economic Forum, among others; and has been widely recognized as an innovator in agile, scalable, and inclusive cultural intelligence. For more information about CulturIntel’s work during the elections visit www.thepulseof2020.com. Our studies about candidates are not funded by any organization or political group.
