Big Data: Biden wins the last presidential debate, and leads by a small margin despite polls
After a much more civil debate, Joe Biden did slightly better than President Trump, based on CulturIntel’s analysis of over 11.1 million digital discussions within 12 hours of the debate. Disrupting traditional polls or surveys, this analysis measures public sentiment, drivers, and barriers based on the organic digital discussions of people without being asked a question.
Overall, Biden reported 52% of positive digital discussions about his debate performance, while Trump reported 46%. This is almost identical to the sentiment profile reported by CulturIntel during the first debate at 51% for Biden and 45% for Trump. The negative sentiment profile however was more favorable for Trump who reported less negative discussions at 46% while Biden’s negative was higher at 47%.
Biden’s positive sentiment is primarily driven by traits about his character and demeanor, describes as not being “Trump” (32%) followed by his presidential demeanor (29%). Trump on the other hand is liked for more pragmatic factors like his policies and priorities at 34%, followed by his toughness at 29%.
On the contrary, Biden was called out for being too much of a politician with his rhetoric, driving 33% of negative comments about his overall performance, followed by his evasive answers at 27%. Trump’s negative discussions criticized his unpresidential demeanor representing 27% of negative discussions, followed by his insulting tone 23%.
Biden leads slightly in positive sentiment among Hispanics: Biden 50%/ Trump 47%
The highly coveted Hispanic community reported a more narrow sentiment profile for each candidate with Biden at 50% positive and Trump 47%. This continues to confirm that the President does have a solid and significant base of Hispanic loyalists that have remained above 40% nationally, something that has Democrats working hard to earn and increase affinity among Hispanic voters in Florida and other key states.
Similarly to the overall population, Hispanics appreciate Trump’s policies and priorities, while those who side with Biden like his demeanor and the fact that he is “not Trump.” This may highlight Biden’s need to strengthen his policy positions among these voters to bring more clarity into why he may be the better candidate, going beyond personality, style, and likeability.
Finally, black Americans remain consistent in their overwhelming support of Vice President Biden with 60% positive sentiment versus only 37% for Trump. Consistent with the overall population and Hispanics, black Americans that side with Trump praise his policies and priorities. The Trump campaign continues concerted efforts to woe the black vote presenting their platform as an alternative worth exploring, often saying “what do you have to lose?.”
In summary, while polls keep on reporting a big spread the voices of people digitally show this race tighter than it is being reported. Ultimately, those who love Trump or Biden have decided where they stand, and that is why we see very little “neutral” sentiment in this analysis. Millions of votes have been cast already and the final results will likely come down to turnout and a few states that will make the winning difference.
CulturIntel is an award-winning market research tech using artificial intelligence, natural language processing, and leading big data tools to turn open-source digital discussions into actionable insights. Its proprietary algorithm harvests all available open-source and unsolicited digital discussions as they happen in real-time everywhere, to cluster and discover patterns in public opinion, sentiment, and behavioral insights forged by the digital voice of the people, as opposed to a survey or poll. CulturIntel has published in collaboration with researchers at Harvard University, The Cleveland Clinic, The World Economic Forum, among others; and has been widely recognized as an innovator in agile, scalable, and inclusive cultural intelligence. For more information about CulturIntel’s work during the elections visit www.thepulseof2020.com. Our studies about candidates are not funded by any organization or political group.
