A.I. and big data analysis report battlegrounds Arizona, Florida, and Nevada for Trump, while Michigan and Pennsylvania are strong for Biden
Nationwide Positive Sentiment: 52% Biden/ 48% Trump
Hispanic Positive Sentiment: 55% Biden/ 45% Trump
With the elections running so close, it will come down to a few states to get to the 270 electoral votes needed to win. As polls continue to be in question, we have run the last read of public sentiment based on the harvesting and analysis of over 5.1 million digital discussions from 10/25- 11/01. Using artificial intelligence, natural language processing, and big data tools modeled by the CulturIntel algorithm, we measured the share of voice (a good proxy for enthusiasm) and sentiment (an indicator of preference) to report candidate favorability for the overall population and Hispanics. The charts below measure the percentage of total positive discussions for each candidate respectively.
Here are the highlights:
▪Overall, positive sentiment for each candidate increase 2 points versus the prior week and remains close at 52% for Biden and 48% for Trump.
▪Among Hispanics Trump continues to hold strong support at 45% positive. His support remains also strong across key states like Texas, and Florida, but the big surprise is Nevada reporting the highest Hispanic positive sentiment at 50%. It is likely Trump will report overall Hispanic support in the 40%’s which gets the GOP back to George W. Bush numbers, who secured 40% of the Hispanic vote. This is important to preserve the relevance of the party given shifting demographics and high growth represented by this cohort.
▪Nevada continues to show a big win for Trump, reporting him ahead with both the overall sentiment at 53%. This is significant since Hillary won Nevada in 2016 and NV is being talked about as a toss-up.
▪Michigan and Pennsylvania continue to show much more favorable for Biden, which could represent a winning difference. He is leading by a large margin with Michigan at 68% positive and Pennsylvania at 57% positive.
▪Ohio is also showing strong for Biden at 56% versus 44% for Trump, which can also make a winning difference since it went for Trump in 2016.
▪Texas, which always leans Republican, shows a very close 51% for Trump and 49% for Biden. 40% of the population of Texas is Hispanic which is a big contributor to this shift. Once again, staying relevant with this voter cohort will be key for years to come as they quickly become the majority.
▪The negative sentiment for both candidates is identical at 47%. This is indicative of a very divided nation and very little “undecided” people; it’s simple you either love or hate one or the other respectively.
▪Trump reports strong support in Arizona which has also been labeled a toss-up state. Trump is leading at 58% versus Biden at 42%.
Percentage of all positive discussions online by candidate and state, analyzed by CulturIntel from 10/25/20 to 11/01/20.
Hispanic support for Trump remains strong above 40% positive, but will it be enough to keep Florida and Texas red?
Percentage of all Hispanic positive discussions online by candidate and state, analyzed by CulturIntel from 10/25/20 to 11/01/20.
While no other Republican has seen Hispanic support above 40%, since George W. Bush, Trump continues to show that he could get the GOP back to those high levels of support. Hispanics represent the largest diverse voter bloc in 2020 at over 32 million eligible voters. They represent the future growth and relevance of either party if they want to continue to stay relevant with America’s largest population growth segments- contributing with over 50% of population growth in the U.S. and with over 65% of them being born in the United States. In fact, every 30 seconds a Hispanic American turns of voting age. This election marks a pivotal point as both campaigns have recognized that targeted outreach, media in Spanish, and relevant messaging both in-culture and in-language is critical to earning this vote.
Ironically, this political season also represents an invaluable business lesson to CMO’s and marketers who continue to dabble with the thought of specifically investing to win the hearts and minds of Hispanic and Black communities. Next time you, as a business leader, question whether it is worth investing in messaging and relevant media and campaigns for the 60 million HIspanics in this country, remember they were important enough for both the Biden and Trump campaigns to invest and dedicate significant resources. What will be the excuse not to? Even Trump has a Spanish salsa jingle, does your brand? The numbers are just too big to ignore, making it mathematically impossible to win without an inclusive approach to marketing and cultural intelligence in the strategies and campaigns deployed.
No one can celebrate just yet, it’s a toss-up and turnout will be the winning factor
It’s been interesting times with sentiment trends shifting almost week to week. With this atypical pattern, it is basically a “toss-up” and it will depend on whether people’s level of digital volume and engagement measured by CulturIntel, translates into turnout. These measures are not a traditional measure of voter intent or pollster standards, however, they accurately serve as a valuable proxy for volume of support and enthusiasm (share of voice) and preference (sentiment). America will decide and we pray for a safe and civil transfer of power that reminds us that this nation is not red or blue, but white, red, and blue.
CulturIntel is an award-winning market research tech using artificial intelligence, natural language processing, and leading big data tools to turn open-source digital discussions into actionable insights. Its proprietary algorithm harvests all available open-source and unsolicited digital discussions as they happen in real-time everywhere, to cluster and discover patterns in public opinion, sentiment, and behavioral insights forged by the digital voice of the people, as opposed to a survey or poll. CulturIntel has published in collaboration with researchers at Harvard University, The Cleveland Clinic, The World Economic Forum, among others; and has been widely recognized as an innovator in agile, scalable, and inclusive cultural intelligence. For more information about CulturIntel’s work during the elections visit www.thepulseof2020.com. Our studies about candidates are not funded by any organization or political group.
